中国社会科学院陈小亮作了一场题为“The Tail that Wags the Economy Belief Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation(经济信仰驱动的业务周期和持续停滞的尾巴)”的讲座。中国社会科学院拥有文学哲学部、社会政法学部、历史学部、经济学部、国际研究学部、马克思主义研究学部等6大学部,近40个研究院所,10个职能部门,包括中国社会科学院研究生院在内的8个直属机构。讲座的主要内容是:
“大萧条”是一个严重衰退与信贷市场,劳动力市场和输出效果持久。我们探讨一个简单的解释是:此次衰退已经比其他人更持久的,因为它是2007年观测这样一个小插曲导致所有代理重新评估宏观风险,特别是尾部事件的概率之前被视为一种非常罕见的事件。为了模拟这种想法,我们研究了生产经济中债务融资的公司。代理使用标准的计量工具来估计骨料冲击的分布。我们进料时间序列美国宏观数据到我们的模型,并表明,我们的信念修正机制可以解释在美国趋势输出的12%的向下移位。
原文:The “Great Recession” was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit markets, labor markets and output. We explore a simple explanation: This recession has been more persistent than others because it was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led all agents to re-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. To model this idea, we study a production economy with debt-financed firms. Agents use standard econometric tools to estimate the distribution of aggregate shocks. We feed a time-series of US macro data into our model and show that our belief revision mechanism can explain the 12% downward shift in US trend output.