我们主要研究社会养老保险和商业养老保险关系。社会养老保险和商业养老保险是中国社会保障制度的两大基础。是它们之间的关系是什么?替代品还是补充?该假设是,商业养老保险的发展具有相对于经济发展水平得库兹涅茨效应。在经济水平低,社会养老保险与商业养老保险是互补的,社会养老保险的发展将促进商业养老保险的需求。而在经济水平高的情况下,他们是可替代的,社会养老保险的发展将挤压商业养老保险的需求。商业养老保险的市场份额上升,再下降相对于经济发展水平,即库兹涅茨效应。
In this paper we study the relationship between social endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance. Social endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance are the two fundamentals of China's social security system. What's the relationship between them? Substitutes or complements? The hypothesis is that the development of commercial endowment insurance has Kuznets effect with respect to the economic development level. At the low economic level, social endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance are complements and the development of social endowment insurance will promote the demand of commercial endowment insurance. While at the high economic level they are substitutes and the development of social endowment insurance will squeeze the demand for commercial endowment insurance. The market share of commercial endowment insurance goes up first, then goes down with respect to economic development level, i.e., the Kuznets effect.