加拿大西安大略大学John Whalley在对外经济贸易大学进行了一场名为阿明顿假设和最优关税的规模的讲座,讲座的主要内容是:
已经有评论在世界贸易体系应对大震荡的2008年金融危机的成功似乎没有报复性市场收盘爆发。大报复性关税以及20世纪30年代风格的低迷交易的担忧的威胁已与数值模拟交易中的100%过激行为有关该项目后报复最优关税。在相关数值模拟,通常由国家使用的产品异质性的阿明顿假设。在这里,我们认为,并显示通过数值计算的广泛使用这种假设产生很大的向上的偏差,以最佳的关税,包括第一步和后报复,相对于贸易理论用于替代同质不错的机型。
原文:There has been commentary on the seeming success of the world trading system responding to the large shock of the 2008 financial crisis without an outbreak of retaliatory market closing. The threat of large retaliatory tariffs and fears of a 1930s style downturn in trade have been associated with numerical trade modelling which project post retaliation optimal tariffs in excesses of 100%. In the relevant numerical modelling it is common to use the Armington assumption of product heterogeneity by country. Here we argue and show by numerical calculation that the widespread use of this assumption gives a large upward bias to optimal tariffs, both first step and post retaliation, relative to alternative homogenous good models used in trade theory.