中国人民大学在职研究生招生网
中国人民大学王非现在中国人民大学新闻学院广告学专业执教。赴日本电通株式会社学习。在中国人民大学新闻学院攻读传媒经济学博士学位。主要研究领域为企业整合营销传播、广告创意与表现、媒介经营、数字媒体及媒介融合等。
中国人民大学王非中国的计划生育政策对生育率使用来自中国健康和营养样品动态，中国人民大学王非运用多种混合比例风险模型，其中未观察到的个体异质性是非参数估计，中国的最严厉和持续的计划生育政策，降低的概率究竟有2和3胞胎的31.1%和35.3%，无子女和对correspond-多地上调概率和具有完全相同的模型模拟预测1出生54.9%和67.0%。前一胎化政策的政策已经显示相似，但较小的Ë学分。但是，模拟进一步表明，有没有一直没有计划生育政策，生育率仍然会大幅度下降了。最后，受过良好教育的女性是不太可能有大量出生;妇女，其第一个诞生是一个儿子往往有更小的家庭比那些首先孩子是个女儿，以下为原文。
This paper estimates dynamic e ects of China's family planning policies on fertil- ity using an individual-level panel sample from the China Health and Nutrition Sur- vey. This paper applies a multiple-spell mixed-proportional hazard model where the unobserved individual heterogeneity is non-parametrically estimated, as suggested by Heckman and Singer (1984). Simulations from the model estimates nd that the one-child policy, the harshest and ongoing family planning policy of China, reduced probabilities of having exactly 2 and 3 births by 31.1% and 35.3%, and correspond- ingly raised probabilities of childlessness and having exactly 1 birth by 54.9% and 67.0%. Policies prior to the one-child policy have shown similar but smaller e ects. However, simulations further show that, had there been no family planning policies, fertility levels would still have declined greatly over cohorts. Lastly, better-educated women are less likely to have a large number of births; women whose rst birth is a son tend to have smaller families than those whose rst child is a daughter.
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