中国人民大学

　　中国人民大学经济学院刘哲希在经济学院进行了一场题为长期停滞的范例的讲座，讲座的主要内容是：

　　我们提出了一个世代交叠新凯恩斯模型，其中一个永久(或很执着)暴跌有可能没有任何自我修正力量充分就业。触发的暴跌是一个去杠杆化的冲击，这就造成储蓄供过于求。在同一个方向工作，并能够创建或加剧这一问题的其他力包括人口增长的下降，增加收入差别，并且在投资的相对价格的下降。我们的模型阐明了日本的危机，大萧条，而复苏缓慢走出大萧条的长期持续性。它也强调了政策的多重影响。

　　原文：We propose an overlapping generations New Keynesian model in which a permanent (or very persistent) slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full employment. The trigger for the slump is a deleveraging shock, which creates an oversupply of savings. Other forces that work in the same direction and can both create or exacerbate the problem include a drop in population growth, an increase in income inequality, and a fall in the relative price of investment. Our model sheds light on the long persistence of the Japanese crisis, the Great Depression, and the slow recovery out of the Great Recession. It also highlights several implications for policy.